我国物流产业发展的经济学分析

本文应用经济学的投入产出方法分析了我国现代物流产业在国民经济中的产业结构关系及其关联效应，认为物流产业应确定为国民经济的主导产业和瓶颈产业，并据此提出了物流产业发展的一些策略。     

如何看待我国宏观税负 --基于"非应税GDP"的科学评价

我国不提供税收的"非应税GDP"比率曾高达30%,要科学测算宏观税负就必须剥离"非应税GDP"的影响,对其计算公式做出相应的调整.从时序角度分析,我国宏观税负总体水平接近广义剩余产品价值率,超过中上等收入国家税负的平均水平,一定程度上超越了我国经济发展的承受能力.从截面角度分析,反映地区税负差异程度的税收基尼系数超过0.5,税负差距导致地区财政收入差距明显,从而影响地方政府提供公共产品和服务的能力.     

江苏省对外贸易与经济增长的关系:基于投入产出方法的研究

本文利用投入产出分析方法,计算了江苏省2002年对外贸易对GDP与各产业部门增加值的贡献。结果表明:江苏省对外贸易和对内贸易对GDP的贡献率出口大于进口;省外调出大于省外调入。省外调出与出口对GDP的贡献率相差不大,省外调入与进口对GDP的贡献率也是相差不大。     

Induced effects of smart food/agri-systems in Japan: Towards a structural analysis of information technology

The Japanese government decided to promote “smart society” in the 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of information and communication technology (ICT) in smart society by input-output analysis using the food industry and agriculture as examples. We define food production and agricultural activities utilizing ICT as a smart food-agri system, and try to analyze the effect of such a system on the economy as a whole. As a result, we confirmed that such a system has a large economic ripple effect on information sectors. At the same time, through these analyses, (1) we redefine information goods and service sectors, (2) we describe the new management sectors that are using these goods and services, but are not currently independent businesses, and (3) we clarify new industrial structure that exists in “smart society” using ICT.     

物质流成本会计理论基础研究

物质流成本会计（MFCA）方法由德国IMU首次提出。该方法一经提出就引起世界范围内的关注，它从物质流的“实物”与“货币”流转角度，根据输入输出模型，核算企业的合格产品成本与废弃物成本，找到企业资源损失的改善点。但所有文献都未提及物质流成本会计的理论基础。论文就字面解释、重要恒等式、学科集成三方面就其理论基础进行深入的研究，以探究其理论渊源。     

Fiscal Incentives and Regional Development Projects: Mercedes-Benz in Juiz de Fora (MG)–Brazil 1996/1999

SUMMARY

The principal aim of this paper is to analyze the Mercedes-Benz project in the municipality of Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais state). This will be accomplished in two ways. First we will analyze the use of fiscal incentives, at both the state and municipal level, which were used in the negotiation with Mercedes-Benz Corporation. Second, through an input-output exercise we will measure the impact of the Mercedes-Benz unit upon the other productive sectors located in Juiz de Fora, the rest of Minas Gerais state and the rest of Brazil. It is important to emphasize that we will measure these impacts in two steps: (a) the construction of the production unit: we will use the fiscal incentives (e.g., budget benefits) offered to Mercedes-Benz (1996), and (b) the forecast production for the first year of operation: we will use the forecast of Class A production–40,000 units for 1999–to implement the shock.

RESUME. El principal propósito de este estudio consiste en analizar el proyecto de Mercedes-Benz en la municipalidad de Juiz de Fora (Estado de Minas Gerais), que se ejecutarà desde dos enfoques. Primero, analizaremos el uso de los incentivos fiscales, tanto al nivel del estado como de la municipalidad, que se utilizaron durante la negociación con la corporación Mercedes-Benz. Segundo, a través de un ejercicio de entrada-salida, mediremos el impacto que la unidad de Mercedes-Benz tendrá sobre otros sectores productivos que operan en Juiz de Fora, y el resto del Estado de Minas Gerais y Brasil como un todo. Consideramos importante hacer hincapié que realizaremos dichas mediciones en dos etapas: (a) la construcción de la unidad de producción: cuando utilizaremos los incentivos fiscales (Ej.: beneficios presupuestarios) ofrecidos a Mercedes-Benz (1996), (b) producción estimada para el primer año de funcionamiento: cuando utilizaremos las proyecciones elaboradas para una producción Clase A–40.000 unidades para 1999 para calcular el impacto del cambio.

RESUMO. Este estudo tem por objetivo principal analisar o projeto da Mercedes-Benz no município de Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais). Isto será implementado de duas maneiras. Primeiro analisaremos os incentives fiscais, nos níveis estadual e municipal, que foram usados na negociação com a Mercedes-Benz Corporation. Segundo, através de um exercício de entrada-saída, mediremos o impacto da unidade da Mercedes-Benz sobre os demais setores produtivos localizados em Juiz de Fora, o resto do estado de Minas Gerais e o resto do Brasil. É importante enfatizar que mediremos esses impactos em duas etapas: (a) a construção da unidade de produção: usaremos os incentivos fiscais (por exemplo, benefícios orçamentàrios) oferecidos à Mercedes-Benz (1996); (b) produção prevista para o primeiro ano de operação: usaremos a previsão de produção de Classe A–40.000 unidades para 1999–para implementar a mudança.     

Modeling Tourism Demand

SUMMARY

Most of the existing studies on tourism demand forecasting apply economic models that use mathematical functions, which require many statistical assumptions and limitations. This paper presents a new approach that applies the rough sets theory to form a forecasting model for tourism demand. The objective of this research is to create patterns which are able to distinguish between the classes of arrivals in terms of volume, based upon differences in the characteristics in each arrival. The information about the arrivals was organized in an Information Table where the number of arrivals corresponds to condition attributes, and the classification was defined by a decision attribute that indicated the forecast categorical value of future arrivals. Utilizing Japanese arrivals data in Hong Kong, empirical results showed the induced decision rules could accurately forecast (86.5%) of the test data.     

资金流量表的二重结构与我国初次分配格局的产业结构分析

资金流量表呈现出功能性分配的结构,在其背后还隐藏着生产增加值的结构或产业结构。两个结构混杂在一起,导致表中的数据打架。由于从资金流量表中解析出二重结构,我们就可以利用资金流量表提供的数据,对初次分配格局进行产业结构的分析。从产业结构的角度出发,资金流量表中的四个部门应改为:一般企业部门、金融机构部门、政府部门和家庭企业部门。由此可以看到:各部门初次分配的格局差别极大。劳动报酬份额较低且下降,实际上主要是一般企业部门的问题。劳动报酬份额的部门差异,在排除了人均资本占有的部门差异和就业的部门差异因素之后,其原因只能归结为人均劳动报酬的部门差异。解决提高劳动报酬份额问题,在短期,必须对不同的部门采取不同的政策,有保有压。在长期,必须把各种有关公平收入分配的政策硬化为制度。     

中国对外贸易隐含碳的测度研究——基于碳排放责任界定的视角

贸易自由化对气候变化的影响已引起国内外学术界的普遍关注。本文采用投入产出法,考虑进口中间投入产品的影响后,建立经济模型,分析我国进出口贸易中的隐含碳,其中特别注重对再出口贸易和部门分解的分析。结果表明:2007年,我国生产隐含碳比消费隐含碳高4.53%,净出口隐含碳达2.98亿吨。我国的CO2排放贸易条件是0.93,这说明我国单位出口的碳排放强度小于单位进口的碳排放强度,国际贸易总体上来说有利于中国的节能减排。"通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业"是出口隐含碳最多的部门,进口隐含碳最多的部门是"化学工业"。隐含碳贸易顺差最大的部门是"纺织业",逆差最大的部门是"石油和天然气开采业"。"化学工业"、"金属冶炼及压延加工业"和"通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业"是再出口隐含碳最多的三个部门,说明这些部门有很大一部分产品属于加工贸易,两头在外的贸易模式对我国进出口隐含碳有较大的影响。最后,根据结论提出了政策建议。     

增值税抵扣制度对行业增值税税负影响的实证研究

本文在考察1994年以来我国增值税抵扣制度的变化及增值税抵扣制度的发展趋势的基础上,运用增值税微观税负计算公式、投入产出表原理测算了第二产业各行业2003、2009年的增值税实际税负和实行现代型增值税抵扣制度的增值税理论税负,并采用变动幅度、税负排序变动、税负差异系数等指标来定量分析抵扣制度变化对行业税负的影响程度。测算结果表明,不同增值税抵扣制度,对各行业的影响程度不一,影响程度差异较大,但扩大增值税抵扣范围的改革有利于缩小行业间税负差异,均衡行业间增值税税负,从而促进行业间的公平竞争。